According to @charliebilello (X, Jan 9, 2026), the market is pricing just a 5% chance of a Fed rate cut in January, down from 17% a week ago and 22% a month ago, indicating sharply reduced near-term easing expectations; source: @charliebilello (X, Jan 9, 2026). He reports the US unemployment rate ended the year at 4.4%, down from a revised 4.5% in November, and year-over-year wage growth at 3.8% versus 3.6% expected, which he says effectively eliminates any chance of a January cut; source: @charliebilello (X, Jan 9, 2026). For crypto traders focused on BTC and ETH, the actionable takeaway is that January easing odds are minimal, so positioning and risk management should align to a no-cut baseline into the upcoming FOMC; source: @charliebilello (X, Jan 9, 2026).

According to @lookonchain, a newly created wallet address 0xA6d8b868cA2EA6e27b49Cb8b03747234502Ec5dF placed a $17.1K position on Polymarket two hours after creation, betting on No change in Fed interest rates after the January 2026 meeting. According to Polymarket, the targeted contract is the market titled No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting, indicating a position that post-January 2026 FOMC rates remain unchanged. According to @lookonchain, the trade timing aligns with a fresh address setup, highlighting a single-address directional wager. According to Polymarket, traders can monitor that market’s price and liquidity to track evolving rate-expectation positioning relevant for crypto risk management.

According to @WatcherGuru, former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly called Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell "incompetent" and "a real dope" in a post shared on X on Dec 2, 2025. Source: @WatcherGuru on X, Dec 2, 2025. The post includes a video clip of the remarks and provides no additional policy details or market data, making this a headline-level development tied to U.S. monetary policy leadership that traders may track for sentiment around USD, Treasury yields, equities, and crypto such as BTC. Source: @WatcherGuru on X, Dec 2, 2025.

According to @StockMKTNewz, US September retail sales rose 0.2% month over month, undershooting the 0.4% consensus and signaling softer consumer momentum versus expectations (source: @StockMKTNewz; U.S. Census Bureau). According to @StockMKTNewz, September Producer Price Index came in at 2.7% year over year, a touch above the 2.6% forecast and indicating slightly firmer upstream price pressure than anticipated (source: @StockMKTNewz; Bureau of Labor Statistics). For crypto traders, the combination of weaker growth and marginally hotter inflation is a mixed macro surprise that can elevate event-driven volatility in BTC and ETH as rate expectations adjust during US hours (source: @StockMKTNewz).

According to @KobeissiLetter citing @Kalshi, prediction markets now expect fewer than two US interest rate cuts in 2025, with the median forecast at 1.9 cuts, sharply down from a peak of four cuts in April. This shift in expectations has driven yields higher, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' rate narrative. For crypto traders, rising yields and reduced rate cut forecasts often signal a risk-off environment, historically leading to downward pressure on Bitcoin and altcoin prices as liquidity tightens and investors seek safer assets. This trend may challenge bullish momentum in the crypto market in the near term. Source: @KobeissiLetter on Twitter, May 28, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, commodities have been steadily pricing in a US recession over the past two months, reflecting ongoing market concerns about economic slowdown and its direct influence on interest rate expectations. The analysis suggests that a recession scenario is increasingly seen by traders as the key path to achieving sustainably lower rates, which could have significant implications for commodities futures, macro-driven trading strategies, and crypto assets sensitive to rate movements (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, April 30, 2025).